Johor's property market continues to attract attention because of infrastructure development, cross-border connectivity and economic growth. But official figures reveal another side of the market that buyers should not ignore.
柔佛的房产市场，因为基建发展、跨境连接与经济增长，持续受到关注。但官方数据也揭示了这个市场的另一面——买家不应该忽视。
According to NAPIC's Southern Region Property Market Report 2025, Johor closed the year with 3,705 unsold completed residential units, 8,108 unsold residential units under construction, and 900 unsold residential units not yet constructed.
根据 NAPIC《南部产业市场报告 2025》，柔佛在 2025 年结束时，共有 3,705 套已建成未售住宅单位、8,108 套在建未售住宅单位，以及 900 套尚未动工的未售住宅单位。
Should these figures make buyers worried about oversupply?
这些数字，是否应该让买家担心供应过剩？
They deserve attention, but they should not be interpreted without context.
它们值得关注，但不应该脱离上下文来解读。
What Changed Between 2024 and 2025?
2024 年与 2025 年之间，发生了什么变化？
NAPIC tracks unsold residential units across three construction stages. Here's how each one moved year-on-year.
NAPIC 将未售住宅单位分为三个建筑阶段进行追踪。以下是这三个阶段逐年的变化情况。
| Unsold Residential Stage未售阶段 | 20242024 年 | 20252025 年 | Change数量变化 | Approx. %约百分比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completed已建成未售单位 | 2,964 | 3,705 | +741 | +25.0% |
| Under construction在建未售单位 | 6,245 | 8,108 | +1,863 | +29.8% |
| Not constructed尚未动工的未售单位 | 834 | 900 | +66 | +7.9% |
The largest numerical increase came from unsold residential units under construction — up by 1,863 units, or approximately 29.8%.
数量增幅最大的，是在建未售单位——增加了 1,863 套，涨幅约为 29.8%。
These figures describe Johor as a whole. They do not prove that every location or project within the state is oversupplied — a distinction the rest of this article works through.
这些数字描述的是柔佛全州的整体情况，并不能证明州内每一个地区或每一个项目都供应过剩——这也是本文接下来要深入探讨的重点。
Source: NAPIC Southern Region Property Market Report 2025, Chart 10 "Residential Unsold Units 2021–2025." Figures cover residential units only and exclude serviced apartments and SOHO units, which NAPIC reports separately.
数据来源：NAPIC 《南部产业市场报告 2025》，图表 10「2021–2025 年住宅未售单位」。数据仅涵盖住宅单位，不包括 NAPIC 另行报告的服务式公寓与 SOHO 单位。
What Do the Three Stages Mean?
三个阶段各自代表什么？
NAPIC's three categories aren't interchangeable. Each one carries a different set of considerations for a buyer.
NAPIC 的这三个分类并不能混为一谈，每一个阶段对买家而言，都有不同的考量重点。
Unsold Completed Units
已建成未售单位
Residential units that have been fully completed but remain unsold within NAPIC's reported category.
这类单位已经完全建成，但在 NAPIC 报告的分类中仍显示为未售出。
- The building may be inspected in person.
- Actual surroundings and finishes may be observed directly.
- Current occupancy levels may be assessed.
- Existing resale and rental listings nearby may be compared.
- A high concentration of similar completed units may increase competition.
- 可以实地考察这栋楼。
- 可以直接观察实际的周边环境与装修水准。
- 可以评估目前的入住率。
- 可以比较附近现有的转售与租赁房源。
- 类似已建成单位过于集中，可能会加剧竞争。
Unsold Units Under Construction
在建未售单位
Reported unsold units within projects that are still being built.
这类单位所属的项目，目前仍在施工中，但已被列为未售出。
- Market conditions may change before the project completes.
- Several nearby projects may complete around a similar period.
- Many similar units entering the rental market together can increase landlord competition.
- Completion and rental timing should not be assumed without project-level research.
- 项目完工前，市场状况可能发生变化。
- 附近多个项目，可能在相近的时间点完工。
- 大量相似单位同时进入租赁市场，可能加剧房东之间的竞争。
- 完工与出租时机，不应凭空假设，需针对具体项目做研究。
Unsold Units Not Constructed
尚未动工的未售单位
Reported unsold units where construction has not yet commenced.
这类单位所属的项目，目前尚未动工，但已被列为未售出。
NAPIC's statewide figures don't explain why construction hasn't started for any specific project — that can only be assessed case by case, and no assumption should be made without project-level information.
NAPIC 的全州数据，无法解释某个具体项目尚未动工的原因——这只能逐案评估，在没有项目层面的信息之前，不应做任何假设。
"Unsold" Does Not Automatically Mean "Unwanted"
"未售出"不代表"不受欢迎"
A residential unit may remain unsold for several possible reasons, including:
一套住宅单位之所以尚未售出，可能有多种原因，包括：
- Recent launch timing
- Construction still being underway
- A large project containing many units
- Asking price relative to the target market
- Layout or property-type preferences
- Competition from nearby projects
- Buyer financing or affordability constraints
- 近期才推出发售
- 项目仍在施工中
- 大型项目本身单位数量庞大
- 开价相对于目标市场的定位
- 户型或房产类型的偏好差异
- 周边项目的竞争
- 买家的贷款或负担能力限制
These are possible reasons, not confirmed conclusions. NAPIC's statewide totals don't identify the specific reason behind any individual unsold unit, and they don't show whether unsold units are concentrated in a handful of large developments rather than spread evenly across the market.
以上只是可能的原因，并非已确认的结论。NAPIC 的全州数据，无法说明某一套具体未售单位的确切原因，也无法说明这些未售单位，究竟是集中在少数几个大型项目里，还是平均分布在整个市场中。
- Johor's unsold residential units increased across all three reported construction stages.
- The largest numerical increase came from units under construction.
- Competing residential supply deserves closer investigation.
- 柔佛三个建筑阶段的未售住宅单位都出现增加。
- 数量增幅最大的是在建未售单位。
- 买家需要更仔细研究当地的竞争供应量。
- That every Johor district is oversupplied.
- Why each individual unit remained unsold.
- Which projects contain most of the unsold units.
- Whether rental demand declined across Johor.
- Whether a specific property is fairly priced.
- Whether property prices will increase or decrease.
- 柔佛每一个地区都供应过剩。
- 每一套单位未售出的具体原因。
- 哪些项目占了大部分未售单位。
- 柔佛整体租赁需求是否下降。
- 某一套具体房产的开价是否合理。
- 房价未来一定会上涨或下跌。
Johor Is Not One Single Property Market
柔佛不是单一的房产市场
Statewide figures combine many different markets into a single number — different districts, townships, property types, price ranges, buyer profiles and demand sources.
全州数据，把许多不同的市场合并成了一个单一数字——不同的地区、市镇、房产类型、价格区间、买家群体与需求来源，全都混在一起。
Locations like Johor Bahru city centre, Iskandar Puteri, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang and Kulai each function as distinct local markets, shaped by their own mix of projects, transport links and buyer demand. Mentioning them here is illustrative, not a claim that any of these areas is currently oversupplied or undersupplied — that would require separate, location-specific evidence.
像新山市中心、依斯干达公主城、地不佬、巴西古当与古来，各自都是独立的地方市场，受到不同项目组合、交通连接与买家需求的影响。这里提及这些地点，仅作举例说明，并非声称其中任何一个地区目前供应过剩或供不应求——那需要针对该地区的独立证据来判断。
Does this specific location have too many similar units competing for the same buyers and tenants?
这个具体地区，是否有太多相似单位，正在争夺同一批买家和租客？
Developer Inventory and Rental Competition Are Different
发展商库存与租赁竞争，是两回事
A project can have relatively few units remaining for sale by the developer, but still face substantial rental competition if a large share of investor-owned units are listed for rent after completion.
一个项目的发展商，也许只剩下少量单位待售，但如果大量由投资者持有的单位，在完工后同时被放上租赁市场，这个项目仍然可能面临激烈的租赁竞争。
- How many units remain unsold by the developer?
- How many investor-owned units may compete for tenants after completion?
- 发展商手上还有多少未售单位？
- 完工后，可能有多少投资者持有的单位，会一起竞争租客？
These are related but separate measurements. NAPIC's unsold-unit figures answer the first question — they don't answer the second. There is no verified, publicly reported figure for how many investor-owned units in any given Johor project will eventually be listed for rent, so this article does not attempt to estimate one.
这两者相关，但衡量的是不同的事。NAPIC 的未售单位数据，回答的是第一个问题——却回答不了第二个。目前并没有经过核实、公开发布的数据，能说明柔佛任何一个项目里，究竟有多少投资者持有的单位最终会放上租赁市场，因此本文不会去揣测或估算这个数字。
How Buyers Should Evaluate Supply
买家该如何评估供应量
Statewide figures are a starting point, not a substitute for this kind of project-level homework.
全州数据只是一个起点，无法取代针对具体项目的这些功课。
Count Comparable Projects
统计可比较的项目
Identify completed and upcoming developments within the same practical area.
找出同一实际生活圈内，已完成与即将推出的项目。
Compare Similar Units
比较相似单位
Focus on units targeting the same buyer or tenant profile as yours.
聚焦于目标买家或租客画像，与你相似的单位。
Check Actual Rental Listings
查看真实租赁房源
Study asking rents, furnishing standards and the number of competing listings. Asking rent is not necessarily the final agreed rent.
研究开价租金、装修标准与竞争房源的数量。开价租金，不一定就是最终成交的租金。
Identify the Real Demand Source
确认真实需求来源
Possible profiles include Singapore commuters, local professionals, families, students, expatriates and short-term visitors. Not every project attracts all of these groups.
可能的租客画像包括：新加坡通勤者、本地专业人士、家庭、学生、外派人士与短期访客。并非每个项目都能同时吸引所有这些群体。
Test the Future Exit Market
评估未来转售市场
Ask whether the property will remain attractive to future owner-occupiers, investors or tenants once today's launch incentives are gone.
思考等到今天的开盘优惠都消失之后，这套房产对未来的自住买家、投资者或租客，是否依然有吸引力。
Can More Supply Create Opportunities?
更多供应，能带来机会吗？
More available inventory isn't only a warning sign — it can also work in a buyer's favour. It may offer:
更多的可售单位，不只是一个警示信号——对买家而言，也可能是一件好事，它可能带来：
- More layouts and floors to compare
- Greater ability to inspect completed options in person
- More time to compare projects before deciding
- Possible room to negotiate
- 更多可以比较的户型与楼层
- 更多机会亲自考察已建成的选项
- 更充裕的时间，可以在决定前比较各个项目
- 可能存在的议价空间
More unsold units statewide is a genuine signal to look closer — not proof that a specific project, location or purchase is a bad idea. The two questions worth asking are: how much is actually competing with this unit, and is there enough real demand behind it?
全州未售单位增加，是一个值得深入研究的真实信号——但不代表某个具体项目、地区或购买决定就是个坏主意。真正值得问的两个问题是：究竟有多少竞争对手，以及背后是否有足够真实的需求？
The Bigger Picture
更全面的视角
Johor's unsold residential figures increased in 2025, particularly among units under construction. This is a genuine market indicator that buyers should examine—but it is not proof that the whole Johor property market is oversupplied or performing poorly.
柔佛的未售住宅数据在 2025 年有所增加，尤其是在建未售单位。这是一个值得买家仔细研究的真实市场指标——但它并不能证明，整个柔佛房产市场都供应过剩，或表现不佳。
State-level statistics provide the warning light. Project-level research provides the answer.
州级统计数据，只能亮起一盏警示灯；真正的答案，来自针对具体项目的研究。
Before buying, ask:
"How many similar units will compete with mine, and is there enough genuine buyer or tenant demand to absorb them?"
买之前，先问自己：
"将有多少相似的单位，会与我的单位竞争？是否有足够真实的买家或租客需求，能够消化这些单位？"
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